The so called “Monster Employment Index“, who measures the number off the number of job advertisements on the Internet, rose sharply in February, to its highest level in over a year.
“This may indicate that U.S. companies are starting to come back in recruitment mode.”
The Norwegian brokerage firm, formerly known as Orion Securities, hasn’t just changed their name; they’ve also changed their market view quite a bit. From being rather cautious to being almost overwhelmingly optimistic. “We believe stock prices will rise, and doubts a new recession that eventually will force the estimates down,” the analysts write in their first weekly report under the new flag.
That’s a bit different from the phrases used in the latest reports:
February 1th 2010: “Because the Greek problems helped to send the dollar up against the euro, and a strong U.S. dollar, in turn, undermines the commodity market. A strong dollar is also negative for Wall Street because competitiveness of American business is being reduced.”
February 8th 2010: “The uncertainty has dragged the euro down, and the dollar has continued to strengthen. Greek credit spreads has gone to new record levels and has dragged Portugal and Spain along with them. Uncertainty associated with some of the countries in the euro zone pushed the euro down to its lowest level against the dollar in seven months. Historically, a rising U.S. dollar has been negative for oil prices and commodities in general. If the unrest related to Greece, Spain and Portugal increase in strength, it could put a damper on oil prices and Oslo Stock Exchange. Anticipation of cold weather in the eastern part of the United States will, however, support oil prices in the coming weeks. In the short term we believe the markets will be characterized by high volatility and uncertainty.”
February 15th 2010: “Investors apparently disagreed with the analysts in terms of earnings. Either the investors are too pessimistic and that analysts are somewhat too optimistic.”
“If we’ll get back to the old highs at the stock exchange, we must have a positive clarification of the Greece problems.”
Last week (March 1th 2010): “Historically, the stock markets have rarely done well in times of rising credit spreads. We therefore recommend to follow the developments in credit market. One possible driver of increased risk aversion is additional uncertainty around Greece, and indications that more countries will have problems with financing of budget deficits.”
“The uncertainty is still large, and the danger is not over.”
Hip Hurray !(?)
But today – March 8th 2010 – both the uncertainty and the danger seems to be gone with the wind:
“We believe stock prices are going to rise, and doubts a new recession that eventually will force the estimates down. Compared with earlier recessions, the prospects are also good. Since 1979, the U.S. has been through four recessions, and the earnings of S&P 500 has every time reached previous peak levels two years after the recession ended,” the Terra analysts writes.
(Hmm..I’m quite sure I’ve heard that argument somewhere else…)
“Last week’s macro numbers were very good. The U.S. ISM index came in slightly below consensus, but was still better than many feared. ISM Services Index came in on the positive side, and builds up the optimism around improvement in the U.S. economy. Initial claims came in as expected, while continuing claims were significantly better and is now at its lowest level since December 2008. Friday’s monthly labor report was also strong, with unemployment in February expected to rise to 9.8%, was held unchanged at 9.7%.”
“The number of employees outside agricultural sector fell by 36,000 to 63,000, as expected. Historically, employment start to rise about six months after the economy is out of recession. We are interpreting the report to suggest that the history is about to repeat itself and that employment will probably increase in the months ahead.”
Because The Monster Says So!
“The Monster Employment Index rose sharply in February to the highest level in over one year,” Terra points out.
“This index measures the number of job advertisements on the Internet, and the rise may indicate that U.S. companies are coming back in recruitment mode.”
Wow, and I didn’t even know there was a “Monster Index”!
(It doesn’t say anything about what kind of jobs that’s being announced on the Internet, thou. Part time? Temporary? Summer jobs, perhaps?)
Related by the Econotwist:
Related articles by Zemanta
- Diviners Divided: Economists clash, sow confusion (sfgate.com)
- What next? Economists divided on the future (msnbc.msn.com)
- Asia Stocks up as Jobs Data Boosts Recovery Hopes (abcnews.go.com)
- Relationship over? Dollar, stocks break up (sfgate.com)
- Daily Blogwatch: No More Recession! And the Ideal Day Trader Setup (dailyfinance.com)
- Stronger dollar not proving to be drag on stocks (msnbc.msn.com)