2010 Analysis: Warns Against Social Unrest

According to The Economist Intelligence Unit’s the world economy is on the road to recovery, but the outlook for 2010 is still highly uncertain. EIU maintain that the crisis has already inflicted its deepest wounds, but its impact will continue to be felt throughout 2010. Moreover, downside risks to economic stability still abound.

“An increase in the frequency and intensity of social and political unrest, given increased unemployment, weak growth and impending fiscal austerity measures in many countries.”

Economist Intelligence Unit

(Article partly in Norwegian, link to summary in English)

Protesters throw stones towards policemen during riots in the northern Greek town of Thessaloniki December 2008. Hundreds of protesters clashed with police for a third day in several Greek cities in riots fuelled by growing economic hardship and triggered by the shooting of a teenager on Saturday night.

Verdensøkonomien er på bedringens vei, men utsiktene er veldig usikre, skriver Economist Intelligence Unit i sin analyse for 2010.


“The cyclical economic upswing in the developed world will continue into the early part of 2010 and, apart from eastern Europe, developing countries will recover relatively quickly from the 2008-09 financial and economic crisis. But according to 2010: country by country, just published by the Economist Intelligence Unit, the pick-up reflects the impact of unprecedentedly aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus. In 2010 governments will face the very difficult task of trying to restore fiscal discipline while also ensuring that withdrawals of stimulus measures do not kill off nascent economic recoveries. The Middle East and Africa will be the best-performing regions of the world, with growth supported by increased oil production and investment in infrastructure. However, China and India will once again be the world’s fastest-growing major economies.”


Economist Intelligence Unit mener følgende tre forhold utgjør den største trusselen mot økonomien i 2010:


* Riskiko for dannelse av nye økonomiske bobler som følge av myndighetenes løse penge- og finanspolitikk.


* Deflasjonspress i land med stor statsgjeld.

* Mer sosial og politisk uro med økende intensitet som følge av høy arbeidsledighet, svak økonomisk vekst og strenger finanspolitikk.


Det tre hurtigst voksende økonomiene i 2010 vil være Qatar, Turkmenistan og Azerbaijan, mens de tre svakeste økonomiene vil være Litauen, Venezuela og Latvia.

Her et sammendrag av rapporten.

(Norsk Google-oversettelse )

Tidligere analyser:

John Williams – shadowstats.com

Antal E. Fekete – San Francisco School of Economics

David Rosenberg – Gluskin Sheff

Goldman Sachs

Sosiété Générale

UniCredit

Danske Bank

Deutsche Bank

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