The Banks Are Bursting

The banks’ excess reserves has exceeded USD 1 trillion, records shows. Last time the excess reserves surged like this was between 1929 and 1935. The enormous amount of money might be a potensial threath to the FEDs control over money supply, former Wall Street-trader, derivatives expert and author dr. Espen Gaarder Haug argues in a new blog post. 

“To me there simply seems to be too many unknown factors that potentially could limit FED’s control over the excess reserves and thereby the money supply.”

Espen Gaarder Haug

(Article in Norwegian, link to original blog in English)

piggy-bank.jpg

Bankene har nå over 1000 milliarder dollar i overskytende reserver stående på konto i U.S. Federal Reserve. Det enorme pengebeløpet utgjør en potensiell trussel mot FEDs kontroll av pengetilførselen, mener dr. Espen Gaarder Haug.

 

 

Overskytende reserver (excess reserves) er penger som bankene holder som ekstra reserver i tillegg til den reservekapitalen de er pålagt å ha.

Ifølge den amerikanske sentralbankens siste oversikt per 12.november har størrelsen på excess reserves økt til over 1000 milliarder dollar.

Før finanskrisen startet var det nesten ingen overskytende reserver i FED.

Sist gang excess reserves eksploderte i tilsvarende omfang var i perioden 1929 til 1935.

Kan true FEDs kontroll

espen-wall-street-wall.jpgDet er flere teorier omkring den voldsomme økningen i bankenes excess reserevs, skriver finanseksperten Espen Gaarder Haug i en ny blog.

Blant annet kan det være en indikasjon om at mye av pengene som Federal Reserve og amerikanske myndigheter har pumpet inn si systemet ikke når ut der de trengs mest – jobbskapende næring.

Det blir også hevdet at den gigantiske pengesekken på et eller annet tidspunkt kommer til å forårsake betydelig inflasjon.

Espen Haug, som også var en av dem som så finanskrisen komme tidlig i 2007, peker på at usikkerheten forbundet med hva bankene kan finne på å gjøre med disse pengene er en potensiell trussel mot FEDs kontroll av pengetilførselen.

“FED’s report seems to be based on a series of hidden assumptions. They do not seem to take into account that FED has much less control over the long-term interest rates than the short rates. If the long-term interest rates went much higher than short rates and the economy at the same time picks up could it not happen that banks will start to lend out their excess reserves to long-term investments to get higher returns? And what about the equity markets and other markets, if the returns here should be great over an extended period of time would it then not be tempting for banks to increase lending to get considerably higher returns than on their excess reserve accounts?”

“Possibly I am completely wrong, I am far from an expert on excess reserves in the banking system. However to me there simply seems to be too many unknown factors that potentially could limit FED’s control over the excess reserves and thereby the money supply.”

Les dr. Espen Gaarder Haugs blog her.

Her er Federal Reserve sin oversikt per 12.november.

Her er den siste totaloversikten over sentralbankens balance sheet per 11.november.

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