Global banks are heading for more trouble as they have to seek re-funding of 10 000 billion dollar over the next few years, analysis from Moody’s Investor Services shows. They have to compete with governmets in the market, and the process will most likly increase the banks internal borrowing cost dramaticly.
“In our view, losses are still on a rising trend, mainly because of the delay that exists between the end of a recession and a fall-off in provisions and actual charge-offs.”
Moody’s Investor Services
(Article in Norwegian)
Ifølge en ny rapport fra kredittvurderingsbyrået Moody’s har det globale bankvesenet nå den korteste finansieringen som noensinne er registrert. 7 000 milliarder dollar i kortsiktig gjeld forfaller innen utgangen av 2012.
I perioden fra nå til utgangen av 2015 har bankene forpliktelser for 10 000 milliarder dollar som skal gjøres opp på en eller annen måte, viser analysen fra Moody’s Investor Service.
Bankenes gjeldsprofil er i illevarslende stor grad vridd fra langsiktige til kortsiktige lån.
Dette vil gjøre banksektoren enda mer sårbar overfor markedsvolatilitet og svingninger i valutakursene, skriver Moody’s ifølge Financial Times.
“The trend towards shorter debt maturities reflected banks’ increasing confidence in their market access as well as the availability of alternative funding channels, notably through the use of securitization. It also appears that, presumably for similar reasons, banks have increasingly relied on instruments with option features (step-up, call or put options) that expose the issuer to periodic changes – the risk being an increase – in the rate they pay on their own debt.”
Moody’s antar at bankene vil forsøke å skaffe seg en mer langsiktig finansiering, men i dagens økonomiske situasjon betyr det mest sannsynlig økte kostnader for bankene.
“Spreads on long-term corporate debt are already substantially wider than short-term debt currently, and it is probable that rates will rise in the future when considering the historically low interest rates currently prevailing and some other forces that may also push up rates, such as the imminent exit of government support to the financial sector and the fact that these governments will also compete with banks for debt raising in order to finance their large deficits. Therefore, funding costs would increase from the mere fact of moving out on the yield curve, with the risk of funding costs being pushed up further by the rising tide of benchmark rates.”
Ikke normale tilstander
Kredittvurderingsbyrået skriver videre at investorene har kommet tilbake i markedet i 2009, men det må ikke forståes som at tilstanden i finansmarkedet er kommet tilbake til det normale.
“We believe that the “thawing” of debt and equity markets was largely driven by calculated, opportunistic risk-taking in the context of the extraordinary support provided by government programs and very low short-term interest rates. We would therefore not describe the investor resurrection as a return to strong financial fundamentals in the markets.”.
“In fact, we expect that credit-related losses to continue to cause damage to banks’ financials. In our view, losses are still on a rising trend, mainly because of the delay that exists between the end of a recession and a fall-off in provisions and actual charge-offs”.
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